How earthquakes start and evolve is one of the big unsolved problems in earth sciences. Therefore, SERA contributes to answer this question with multi-disciplinary science across the domains of seismology, anthropogenic seismicity, near-fault observatories and deep underground laboratories in order to achieve an improved understanding of earthquake occurrence. To that aim, SERA develops joint research activities targeted on pooling data and expertise. Furthermore, SERA also delivers products in hazard and risk which per definition are based on the integration of competences from different domains.
In brief |
New data collection, such as multi-parameter networks in the near vicinity of active faults or well-monitored episodes of seismicity induced by anthropogenic activities, allow to study the process of fault slip and earthquake initiation. This work package will develop and test new methodologies and tools to provide a refined description of the mechanical processes and of the rock mass properties. It will identify the most relevant characteristics of the microseismicity that accompanies the reactivation of a fault and the initiation of seismic activity, such as location, magnitude of individual events and distribution of magnitudes. This will enable a better characterisation of the various modes of cross-coupling between seismic and aseismic deformation, and in particular of the role of fluids and of slow slip transients, as requested for improving statistical, predictive models. |
Lead |
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Participants |
ETH, GFZ, UNINA, IGPAS, INGV |
Contact |
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Tasks |
Task 23.1 Near real-time seismic source characterization Task 23.2 Characterization of fluid and slip transients from seismicity Task 23.3 Test-beds for the validation of tools and methologies (shared Task JRA1-JRA2) Task 23.4 Assessment of network design (shared Task JRA1-JRA2) |
Deliverables |
D23.1 Advanced tools for the identification and relocation of low-magnitude seismicity. [M24] D23.2 Statistical tools characterizing seismicity clustering and magnitude distribution. [M24] D23.3 Methodologies for characterizing the forcing terms for the initiation of seismicity. [M24] D23.4 Testbed validation of tools and resulting high level products: software toolbox, validation methodologies, demonstration report. [M36] D23.5 Analysis of network performance for investigations of earthquake physics. [M36] |
In brief |
Seismic hazard analysis depends directly on the estimations of seismic activity rates, on long-term rates for Poissonian modelling of earthquake activity as well as on short-term rates for time-dependent aftershock hazard or other earthquake triggering phenomena in areas with induced seismicity. This work package will address the general problem of characterizing the statistical properties of past earthquake occurrence to refine the capability of forecasting future probability of occurrence. The outcome will serve as input for hazard assessment for natural and induced seismicity. |
Lead |
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Participants |
ETH, CNRS, AMRA, IGPAS, INGV |
Contact |
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Tasks |
Task 24.1 Open-source toolbox for seismicity analysis Task 24.2 Characterization of earthquakes sequences and background-seismicity rates Task 24.3 Time dependency and hazard computation for induced-seismicity episodes Task 24.4 Test-beds for the validation of tools and methodologies (shared Task JRA1-JRA2) Task 24.5 Assessment of network design (shared Task JRA1-JRA2) |
Deliverables |
D24.1 PyMap open-source toolbox for seismicity analysis [M24] D24.2 Benchmarking cases for aftershock and background seismicity rate evaluations. Methods, comparisons, and guidelines. [M24] D24.3 Time-dependent induced-seismicity models and their dependency on time-varying operational parameters. Guidelines for time-dependent hazard evaluation. [M36] D24.4 Testbed validation of tools and resulting high level products: software toolbox, validation methodologies, demonstration report. [M36] D24.5 Analysis of network performance for investigations of earthquake statistics. [M36] |
In brief |
Europe is in the process of revising the European building code. We urgently need to ensure that the new code targeted for the year 2020 will be based on the most-up to date and harmonized European hazard model available. This update will also address inconsistencies with national hazard models. Since the last model was released in 2013 (ESHM13), there have been a number of advances in the available data and in our understanding of ground motions caused by large earthquakes. Therefore, this work package will perform a revision of the ESHM13 model produced by SHARE (LINK) and release the ESHM18, which will be used as input for the new European building code Eurocode 8. |
Lead |
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Participants |
EUCE, LNEC, UPAT, COUN, AUTH, GFZ, CNRS, INGV, IST, BRGM |
Contact |
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Tasks |
Task 25.1 Defining engineering output requirements for natural and anthropogenic earthquake hazard Task 25.2 Update and extension of the seismogenic source model Task 25.3 Update and extension of the GMPE logic tree Task 25.4 Model computations, quality checks, documentation and access Task 25.5 Interface to EuroCode8, to the Global Earthquake Model and to risk modelling |
Deliverables |
D25.1 Engineering output requirements for natural and anthropogenic earthquake hazard. [M6] D25.2 Updated databases of seismicity, faults and strain rates for ESHM18. [M12] D25.3 Seismic source model for ESHM18. [M18] D25.4 Updated GMPE logic tree and rock/soil parametrization for ESHM18. [M18] D25.5 ESHM18: hazard, sensitivity analyses, disaggregation [M24] D25.6 ESHM18: documentation, data and models for EFEHR distribution [M36] D25.7 ESHM18: hazard products for risk applications [M36] |
In brief |
Understanding the magnitude of human and economic losses from damaging natural hazard events is fundamental for the development and implementation of disaster risk reduction measures. The aim of this work package is to develop a European risk modelling framework that brings together the strengths of previous projects and fills in the research gaps. It also integrates knowledge and data from many of the SERA WPs including the updated European hazard model of JRA3. Finally, it will build on the risk assessment framework and software established by the Global Earthquake Model. |
Lead |
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Participants |
ETH, LNEC, UNITN, UPORTO, BOUN, AUTH, BRGM |
Contact |
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Tasks |
Task 26.1 Taxonomy and exposure of residential, commercial and industrial building Task 26.2 Method for estimating site effects in city-based risk assessmentsstock Task 26.3 Physical vulnerability assessment Task 26.4 Socioeconomic vulnerability and resilience assessment Task 26.5 Integrated earthquake risk analysis Task 26.6 Testing and verification Task 26.7 Dissemination of data, models and results |
Deliverables |
D26.1 Taxonomy of European residential, commercial, industrial buildings and industrial plants [M6] D26.2 Methods for developing European residential exposure models [M12] D26.3 Methods for developing European commercial and industrial exposure models [M24] D26.4 Method for estimating site effects in city-based risk assessments [M24] D26.5 European physical vulnerability models [M24] D26.6 European socioeconomic indicators and indices for integrated risk assessment [M18] D26.7 Framework for European integrated risk assessment [M24] D26.8 Testing and verification of framework at city and national scales [M36] |
In brief |
Along with the drive to follow and exploit the developments both in the area of numerical modelling of non-linear systems and the area of advanced testing of components/systems using hybrid (numerical/physical) dynamic sub-structuring simulations (HDS), this work package pursues the following objectives:
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Lead |
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Participants |
ETH, JRC, LNEC, UPAT, UBRI, UPM, BOUN, UIB |
Contact |
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Tasks |
Task 27.1 Advanced methods for order reduction, quantification of epistemic uncertainties of civil/mechanical systems and experimental online/offline dynamic sub-structuring methods Task 27.2 Advanced testing of components/substructures with hybrid simulations and shaking tables Task 27.3 Advanced multi-hazard testing of prototype urban infrastructure using coupled conventional and city-laboratory facilities |
Deliverables |
D27.1 Enhanced HDS due to order reduction, reduced epistemic uncertainties and complementary use of offline dynamic sub-structuring methods [M21] D27.2 Use of improved HDS for novel isolators/dissipators, for thermomechanical applications and for SSI applications using shaking tables equipped with laminar shear-box [M30] D27.3 Assessment of the potential for city-laboratory based multi-hazards research and a long term development roadmap [M36] |
In brief |
In the past decade, real-time seismology has moved from providing post-event information within minutes from earthquake occurrence, to issuing event information during the rupture, as soon as data begin to arrive at the network. Reliability and accuracy of the source parameters are limited by the use of automatic procedures applied to data processing and the availability of the earliest snippets of the wavefield reaching only a fraction of the seismic network. As consequence, early estimates of shaking and possible damage are also accompanied by large uncertainties, impacting the ability to organize a rapid and appropriate response. This work package applies forward modelling techniques to provide time-evolving prediction maps of the expected ground shaking from regionalized GMPE and tsunami-genic potential of a seismic rupture. The predicted shaking estimates are further constrained by integration of late arriving seismic, accelerometric or GPS data and felt reports as they become available. These goals require the adoption of flexible approaches capable to complement near source data with regional and teleseismic data. Finally, the possible improvement of automatic impact assessment of global earthquakes due to improved shaking estimates will be evaluated. |
Lead |
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Participants |
ETH, GFZ, INCDFP, NOA, EMSC, CNRS, INGV |
Contact |
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Tasks |
Task 28.1 Fault geometry and size Task 28.2 Attenuation models at regional scale Task 28.3 Evolutionary rupture kinematics for ground shaking Task 28.4 Evolutionary ground shaking prediction Task 28.5 Qualitative impact assessm |
Deliverables |
D28.1 Report on methodologies for the real-time, automatic determination of fault geometry, source duration size parameters. Validation tests on synthetic and real-data [M18] D28.2 Report on attenuation models at regional scale for real-time ground shaking prediction. Implementation at the prototype stage in a real-time, automatic software platform. [M24] D28.3 Report on real-time inversion methods for kinematic rupture parameter estimation, source time function using strong motin and GPS data with constraints. Validation tests on synthetic and real-data [M30] D28.4 Design, test and prototype experimentation of a software platform for real-time quake shaking and validation on earthquake case studies [M36] D28.5 Report on methodologies performance analyses of qualitative impact assessment methods [M36] |